India cotton production in 2021-22 is expected to fall 1% yoy to 28.34 million bales (up 2% previously) due to insufficient rainfall during the main planting period in July and August.
As of mid-September, rainfall in Gujarat was nearly 30 percent below the long-term average, reducing the area available for planting and affecting yields. Gujarat is the most productive state in India (accounting for about a third of the country annual output).
India cotton production in 2021-22 is expected to fall 1% yoy to 28.34 million bales (up 2% previously) due to insufficient rainfall during the main planting period in July and August, Fitch Solutions said on Tuesday.
In addition, Fitch said recent outbreaks of pink bollworm in Bhatinda and Mansa could also weigh on yields. However, if the weather returns to normal and pink bollworm outbreaks are adequately controlled, production should rebound in 2022-23.
"With the spread of COVID-19, domestic production and consumption of textile raw materials are slowing down."
However, the output of the domestic textile manufacturing industry is likely to increase in the coming years as the government recently announced a five-year Production-linked Incentive (PLI) program to provide additional financial support to domestic textile manufacturers.
At the global level, Fitch raised its 2021 average cotton price forecast to $90.0 / lb (previously $87.0 / lb). The report said the short-term supply outlook had deteriorated,
At the same time, Fitch said global demand would grow strongly in 2021, and subsequently raised its demand forecasts for Bangladesh and Turkey. The recovery in both countries has been better than initially expected.
In the long term, Bangladesh and Vietnam will gain significant market share in cotton consumption as their textile industries expand significantly, According to Goodwill.
"India, Indonesia and Pakistan are likely to benefit from the shift of low-value manufacturing from China, which will increase their share of global apparel exports."
However, the lack of preferential trade access to US and EU markets and rising Labour costs will slow expansion. Fitch said demand in China would continue its downward trend as the Chinese government looks to reduce its garment manufacturing business and move up the value chain.
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